How a UFO Document Sparked a 1,700% Market Frenzy on Polymarket
A speculative frenzy erupted in decentralized prediction markets after a controversial interpretation of a U.S. government UFO document triggered a 1,700% surge in a Polymarket contract. The contract, which asked whether Donald TRUMP would declassify UFO files by 2025, had languished at 5.5% odds before suddenly spiking to 90%.
The catalyst wasn’t new disclosure but a governance proposal arguing that a September 2023 AARO information paper—featuring the 'jellyfish UFO video'—constituted declassification. Traders poured $16 million into the market before it resolved on technical grounds.
The episode highlights how crypto markets now react to bureaucratic fine print as readily as to hard news. When AARO’s document described its 'transparency process' and released previously classified footage, market participants treated it as a de facto disclosure event—regardless of official status.
